Tour Of Britain Route through Chesham 12th Sept 2014

World Cup Stats - Who has the toughest group

A bit of world cup stats for you. Answer me this who has the toughest group? Well luckily FIFA helpfully rank each team, based on previous performance. So if you add up the rankings for each group you get a comparative value. So Group A has Brazil ranked 11^th (Crazy as that might sound), Croatia 18^th,  Mexico 24^th and Cameroon 59^th. So collectively the ranking for the group totals 112. In theory at least the toughest group should be the one with the lowest collective ranking.

So here goes in order from easiest to hardest.

• v  D (Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica) – 56
• v  G (Germany, US, Portugal, Nigeria) – 57
• v  B  (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia) -78
• v  C (Colombia, Greece, Cote d’Ivoire, Japan) -80
• v  E (Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras) - 84
• v  F (Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria) - 101
• v  H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, Korea Republic) -107
• v  A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon) - 112

So clearly Brazil have it easy as do Belgium, But unfortunately, Its official England are in the group of death. But only just by a hairs breath, Germany only have it one place easier, and with the US, Portugal and Nigeria in their group I think I’d prefer Englands.

One Subtle thing that you could toy with is the idea that the logic that in every group the 4^th team is very unlikely to get very far. Yet they account for the majority of the score, and there is considerable variance (23 >59). What if you treated them as outliers and ignored them. What if in effect you assumed that the 4^th ranked team was going to lose every match.

• v  B  (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia) - 21
• v  D (Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica) – 25
• v  G (Germany, US, Portugal, Nigeria) – 34
• v  C (Colombia, Greece, Cote d’Ivoire, Japan) -36
• v  E (Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras) - 50
• v  H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, Korea Republic) - 51
• v  F (Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria) - 52
• v  A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon) - 53

Well the answer is not much changes, the toughest group becomes group B, with Spain and Netherlands in it hard to see Chile overcoming them. Group H also looks slightly worse off too but still Brazil have bar far the easiest group, even accounting for their own poor seeding they retain the easiest group.

None of this helps to work out who is going to win, that will be Brazil anyway, but the stats in sport are what I enjoy so a little distraction never hurt anyone.

Chesham 2 - St Neots 0

In the past people have been far too quick to talk down Chesham, as a sleepy backwater full of urbane degenerates. More recently though I've noticed that the town has begun to have a bit of a spring in its step, a certain vibrancy and positivity within its population which could really make it into something special in the future. The people of Chesham never used to know how lucky they were, and now they are beginning to realize and it feels great. So i'm going to take a quick look at a few things that Chesham does really well.

Community

There may be several distinct area in Chesham but each has its own personality and each belongs to Chesham. Collectively there are some real positive things going on, Be it my own Community Orchard project, The Pop-Up restaurant, The Art shop, Local food market, Carnival, Transition town. The list is literally endless and full of people getting together to do something fun locally. None of these activities cost the earth, and they aren't essential but that's whats good about them. They all are generated from the ground up, and they are led by local people who just want to do something locally. We're not short of local heroes either, you don't have to look to hard to bump into someone doing something good locally, and you know what it makes a difference. The local facilities too are good We have our own Library, 2 swimming pools and a number of local community halls. The churches and mosques are open and inclusive and together they pull together in the name of Chesham. I've even heard rumors of something awesome happening on the High street on the 12th at 1pm, involving foxes perhaps? Something that St Neots can only dream of.

Sport

Who'd of thought it but even from a sporting perspective things are on the up At the weekend the mighty Generals beat St Neots 2 Nil to stretch the unbeaten run to 11 games, we have a fairly decent cricket club a brilliant community focused rugby club not to mention a burgeoning Bowls league that St Neots can only dream of. International sport too finds its home in Chesham, this year stage 6 of the Tour of Britain brings the worlds best cyclists to our doorstep. Hands down we beat St Neots int he sporting department.

Commercial activities

Now here you must all think St Neots has a chance but you know what its blown out of the water. OK we don't have a McDonalds, a KFC, or a pizza Express. OK, so all the chain stores don't see value in our little high street and you won't find an M&S in our town, but you know what? We don't need any of that rubbish, they are what kills a high street and makes it just like any other so if you do want a New Look go ahead move to St Neots, We'll keep our Butcher, Baker and our Candlestick maker. Does St Neots have a brewery shop? No, what about 2 different markets? A cobbled High Street that kids can run around and enjoy themselves with ease? Ok so we have a few too many charity shops and not enough restaurants, but even our charity shops are good, well stocked and with lots of rich peoples cast offs. So what if we're a quiet Waitrose Town but at least you can do your shopping in piece. There are also some hidden gems in Chesham too that only the aficionados would discover, How about a bit Chiltern ridge apple juice for  Or Auberge de Chocolate, which make high class chocolaty goodness right on our doorstep. We've even got an entirely fictional bus service. So St Neots Do your worst what have you got that our high street doesn't?

Environment

So St Neots, Here is our trump card, does the Abbreviation AONB mean anything to you? Whats that you say your nearest bit of natural eye candy is the Norfolk broads? HA! I laugh in you general direction. Chesham is Beautiful Its official it is right next to An Area Of Natural Beauty, and a natural gateway to the Chilterns which is internationally recognized as a natural haven, right on the edge of one of the worlds greatest Cities, (No St Neots 60 miles is not close and Cambridge isn't that great). Not only do we have Red Kites everywhere, but we have several endangered and special species both of flowers, and animals, including a Butterflies which you only get on chalk aquifers. If your anywhere in Chesham I could spin you around and set you off in a straight line and within 5 minutes you would be in a natural wonder with vistas worthy of the lake district or the Highlands, and all of this is a well kept secret so you don't get overwhelmed with tourists, Other than the odd coach load of DofE students.

Killer Fact

I could go on about the History, the People, the gardens, not to mention the Beer. But i'll leave all that for later posts, so for now I'll leave you with one last Killer Fact and a challenge to St Neots. So the killer fact on why Chesham trounces St Neots is Lama's! Go on St Neots Show me the Lama*!

* This actual Lama is not actually a resident of Chesham, The real ones are a little camera Shy.

F1 2014 - Heres how it is

The new formula 1 season has kicked off and with so much change its inevitably going to be one of unpredictability, unreliability and unbelievibility. The sport is one of technological advancement and engineering, the rules therefore provide some boundaries and enable the sport to develop in controlled way and to at least try and keep it competitive. The trouble is that the rules need to be equally technical to the point that the ordinary fan doesn't really understand how it all works. The other trouble is that those in charge of the sport are so carried away with making money, and therefore increasing sponsorship, advertising and other revenue streams. The effect of this is that quite often rather than the rules being used purely being used to make the sport competitive they are instead used to increase sponsorship, under the guise of making it more watchable. This leads to a situation where F1 becomes at the whim of advertisers and rich individuals who would happily re-interpret the rules mid season to ensure a predictable outcome, you quite often see decisions which go one way for one driver have an entirely different effect in a different team, the only difference being a minor technicality and the positioning of the team in relation to any media.

Ultimately this undermines F1 and makes it more like the X factor than a pinnacle of sporting success and its not something that inspires people to go out and get involved in sport. Its competitively bankrupt with malleable rules and enforced twists. At best its manufactured entertainment at worse its a farce. Its noisy un-inclusive, polluting, money led, disaster of a sport that i'd love to hate. Yet there is something about it that enthralls and I get gripped every year. I get into the stupid rules and I try and understand them, I look for the drivers falling out and I look for those tactical decisions that make a seconds difference and I look to heroic driving from the likes of Hamilton, Vettel, Button and co, The horrendous mistakes from rookie drivers and the sulks from the likes of Alonso and Raikkonen somehow drag me back year on year. The fact I can only watch half the races doesn't seem to make any difference I still want to know what the latest story line is.

I am hooked and prior to last weekends race i wrote down some predictions about things to look out for. For me the season hasn't yet formally started, I only count the races which are on the BBC, so in advance of the seasons start there is still time to publish what i think may happen.

Caterham and Marussia- both to get points. With so much unreliability across the field, combined with the back markers continued gradual improvement, this season will be the best opportunity for Caterham and Marussia to sneak into the points. Maybe even a podium if enough cars break at he right time.

Rosberg and Hamilton to crash out early in the season. - Mercedes already look really competitive this season.they seem to have a good infrastructure , understood the rules well and bought together the right mix of skills to deliver a competitive package. In Rosberg and Hamilton they have 2 drivers both highly capable and ambitious, either could be viewed as potential world champions. Both also have a lot to prove, Hamilton has in recent years failed to deliver on the promise from his early career and has been through some difficult times. Likewise Rosberg has shown a lot of promise, and looks like a great driver never to win. Neither driver has the clear upper hand within the team and both will want to show that they are the driver to back should a tittle opportunity arise. This year more than any they will be battling out for top spot, so forget Alonso and Raikkonen this year I think the major driver battle will be Hamilton vs Rosberg and in these scenarios, ultimately an early coming together is likely.

Massa To Fly- Freed from the shackles from years of being an also run, I think Massa will be refreshed and will surprise a few by his raw talent. He's one of the most underrated drivers of our time and where it where a different (Pre Schumacher) Era Massa would have been more successful but as an also ran he's lacked motivation. This year with Williams too appearing to be on the rise I think it will be a perfect match for Massa who I fully expect to rack up a number of podium finishes.

Raikkonen to storm off mid season - The Iceman cometh and the ice man goes. He's undoubtedly got a high degree of talent but just as Massa is underrated Raikkonen is overated, and appears to believe his own legend. But when you compare him to Vettel, Alonso, even to Button and Hamilton i think he's the weakest former world champion on the grid. Certainly he'll be out shone by Alonso and Ferrari don't seem to have a great package just yet. His one world championship, was possibly deserved but timing played its part, F1 wasn't terribly competitive back in 2007 Red bull hadn't taken off and even Mclaren where in a transition. Even then his championship victor was in part made possible by some interesting decisions by the FIA who appear to be a little colour blind towards the red of Ferrari. History, is also not on Raikkonens side, I don't think there is a team he has left amicably, he tends to be a little prone to sulking and throwing his toys out of the pram, so faced with being a second driver in a team that he will ultimately view as under-performing will be a challenge and i don't see him lasting the year.

Rules will be interpreted in Ferrari's favour. - The first rule of F1 is that Ferrari should win, and any rule that effects their results is obviously wrong.

A female driver will get a race. - There is a momentum building in womens sport and top female athletes, so there is a real opportunity for a team to make money by being the first team in recent years to have a female driver, (the last time was in 1992). So for one of the smaller teams, when we get to mid season and they need to start thinking about funding for 2015 i wouldn't be surprised to see a female at the wheel of and F1 car. My fear is that an F1 team could get the headline just by allowing a few Friday test laps, but hopefully it will translate to a full race seat. With Sussie Wolff at Williams we have a highly capable women waiting in the wings and just because shes not the reserve driver for Williams, doesn't mean she couldn't be offered a race seat elsewhere should the opportunity arise. On a less cynical note Wolffs boss Claire Williams shows that women can succeed in F1 and Wolff is a test driver on merit so it hopefully won't be too long.

Vettel will win - Ultimately no matter how unpredictable the season is, quality will shine through and Red Bull still have the best overall package, even if their car is not currently up to scratch, they have the resources to make it come together. From an ironic point of view I hope he wins it on the last day of the season and only because of the double points. Its a stupid rule and Vettel has said as much but i'd bet he'd still take the championship that way. As a wild card Possibility i think Button has a chance, If Red bull fail to materialize this year, and hamiltion/Rosberg fallout, Button has the experience patience, adaptability and determination to quietly come through whilst everyone else is complaining about the rules or their team.

Blog 101

With a bit of luck and a trailing wind I'm hoping to write a regular blog. Not sure how it will develop but the aim is  to use my time on the Much Maligned Metropolitan line to put my wandering thoughts to paper. Its a tricky thing to start, and I make no pretence of being a writer or any sort of publisher. So why am I writing one, the simplest t answer is that I often have thoughts that are too detailed for twitter and require some exploration to understand why I have reached that conclusion. I find that in implicit in the act of writing is a discipline which forces the mind to formulate ones thoughts a little better and then to commit them to public scrutiny not only allows thoughts to be tested, but ensures ones own view is resilient and at least a little thought through.

So I am writing this as a voyage of self discovery and mostly for my self. If you like what I write or have a view which can add to the conversation id love for you to join me. I appreciate this makes me sound like some sort of naval gazing self aggrandising hippy, and maybe there is some truth to that, but i guess we'll wait and see.

I guess the next question is what to write about? Quite often the best blogs with the highest readership have a narrative and a rich set of core principals, which hold the work together. Unfortunately for me I don't have those for these posts, maybe Ill find one as I write but barring in mind I'm not on a mission to gain huge readership, my goals for the blog will be slightly different. It would be easy for me to describe the blog in a whatever comes to mind sort of a way. But that also wouldn't be true, there are lots of things that go through my mind that would not make interesting reading and I do want to grip your attention and the plan is to formulate well put together blogs. The honest answer is that I don't know what to expect from this blog and that's part of the reason for doing it.Who knows in a years time I may have an idea that drives it forward, but maybe not.

What I can tell you is what i'm interested in and where my thoughts are likely to go in the early days. I'll explore all of these topics more broadly in my next few posts.

• Atheism - I am one, and there are many implications to being an atheist in today's society 
• Religion - I'm fascinated by the stuff, I don't understand it, but i'm fascinated by its history. All religions are stunning in there very existence and there are lots we can learn from how they have evolved.
• History - this mostly comes from a love of historical fiction novels, and I know little about genuine historical fact.
• Maths - the things people can do with 10 different figures is stunning. I'm not some sort of mathematical boffin but I'm particularly interested in natural sequences and the economics of reality. Think Fibonacci meets John Stewart Mill. meets
• Technology - I work in the technology industry, and there is so much to it that its inevitable that the occasional tech blog will be forthcoming especially accessibility and CRM technology
• Sport - Im not fanatical about any particular sport or team but I do enjoy the thrill of it. Essentially if I can find a knowledgeable source to get me started I can be equally enthralled by curling as I can a American football. But with a particular following for Leyton Orient
• Society - In its widest sense society and how we move forward is important, So politics, Charities, Equality, Poverty that sort of thing

Well that's about it to start with, the plan is to quietly write a blog about each of the above subject areas to get me started then I'll start looking for feedback. 

*I should say here that I'm dyslexic and my spelling is atrocious. I will attempt to fix as many mistakes as possible, but the mos important thing is that the blogs are interesting and readable, the odd mistake does not distract from that experience for too many a people, So if terrible spelling offends I can only apologise, but i'm not going to lose much sleep over it.