F1 2014 - Heres how it is

The new formula 1 season has kicked off and with so much change its inevitably going to be one of unpredictability, unreliability and unbelievibility. The sport is one of technological advancement and engineering, the rules therefore provide some boundaries and enable the sport to develop in controlled way and to at least try and keep it competitive. The trouble is that the rules need to be equally technical to the point that the ordinary fan doesn't really understand how it all works. The other trouble is that those in charge of the sport are so carried away with making money, and therefore increasing sponsorship, advertising and other revenue streams. The effect of this is that quite often rather than the rules being used purely being used to make the sport competitive they are instead used to increase sponsorship, under the guise of making it more watchable. This leads to a situation where F1 becomes at the whim of advertisers and rich individuals who would happily re-interpret the rules mid season to ensure a predictable outcome, you quite often see decisions which go one way for one driver have an entirely different effect in a different team, the only difference being a minor technicality and the positioning of the team in relation to any media.

Ultimately this undermines F1 and makes it more like the X factor than a pinnacle of sporting success and its not something that inspires people to go out and get involved in sport. Its competitively bankrupt with malleable rules and enforced twists. At best its manufactured entertainment at worse its a farce. Its noisy un-inclusive, polluting, money led, disaster of a sport that i'd love to hate. Yet there is something about it that enthralls and I get gripped every year. I get into the stupid rules and I try and understand them, I look for the drivers falling out and I look for those tactical decisions that make a seconds difference and I look to heroic driving from the likes of Hamilton, Vettel, Button and co, The horrendous mistakes from rookie drivers and the sulks from the likes of Alonso and Raikkonen somehow drag me back year on year. The fact I can only watch half the races doesn't seem to make any difference I still want to know what the latest story line is.

I am hooked and prior to last weekends race i wrote down some predictions about things to look out for. For me the season hasn't yet formally started, I only count the races which are on the BBC, so in advance of the seasons start there is still time to publish what i think may happen.

Caterham and Marussia- both to get points. With so much unreliability across the field, combined with the back markers continued gradual improvement, this season will be the best opportunity for Caterham and Marussia to sneak into the points. Maybe even a podium if enough cars break at he right time.

Rosberg and Hamilton to crash out early in the season. - Mercedes already look really competitive this season.they seem to have a good infrastructure , understood the rules well and bought together the right mix of skills to deliver a competitive package. In Rosberg and Hamilton they have 2 drivers both highly capable and ambitious, either could be viewed as potential world champions. Both also have a lot to prove, Hamilton has in recent years failed to deliver on the promise from his early career and has been through some difficult times. Likewise Rosberg has shown a lot of promise, and looks like a great driver never to win. Neither driver has the clear upper hand within the team and both will want to show that they are the driver to back should a tittle opportunity arise. This year more than any they will be battling out for top spot, so forget Alonso and Raikkonen this year I think the major driver battle will be Hamilton vs Rosberg and in these scenarios, ultimately an early coming together is likely.

Massa To Fly- Freed from the shackles from years of being an also run, I think Massa will be refreshed and will surprise a few by his raw talent. He's one of the most underrated drivers of our time and where it where a different (Pre Schumacher) Era Massa would have been more successful but as an also ran he's lacked motivation. This year with Williams too appearing to be on the rise I think it will be a perfect match for Massa who I fully expect to rack up a number of podium finishes.

Raikkonen to storm off mid season - The Iceman cometh and the ice man goes. He's undoubtedly got a high degree of talent but just as Massa is underrated Raikkonen is overated, and appears to believe his own legend. But when you compare him to Vettel, Alonso, even to Button and Hamilton i think he's the weakest former world champion on the grid. Certainly he'll be out shone by Alonso and Ferrari don't seem to have a great package just yet. His one world championship, was possibly deserved but timing played its part, F1 wasn't terribly competitive back in 2007 Red bull hadn't taken off and even Mclaren where in a transition. Even then his championship victor was in part made possible by some interesting decisions by the FIA who appear to be a little colour blind towards the red of Ferrari. History, is also not on Raikkonens side, I don't think there is a team he has left amicably, he tends to be a little prone to sulking and throwing his toys out of the pram, so faced with being a second driver in a team that he will ultimately view as under-performing will be a challenge and i don't see him lasting the year.

Rules will be interpreted in Ferrari's favour. - The first rule of F1 is that Ferrari should win, and any rule that effects their results is obviously wrong.

A female driver will get a race. - There is a momentum building in womens sport and top female athletes, so there is a real opportunity for a team to make money by being the first team in recent years to have a female driver, (the last time was in 1992). So for one of the smaller teams, when we get to mid season and they need to start thinking about funding for 2015 i wouldn't be surprised to see a female at the wheel of and F1 car. My fear is that an F1 team could get the headline just by allowing a few Friday test laps, but hopefully it will translate to a full race seat. With Sussie Wolff at Williams we have a highly capable women waiting in the wings and just because shes not the reserve driver for Williams, doesn't mean she couldn't be offered a race seat elsewhere should the opportunity arise. On a less cynical note Wolffs boss Claire Williams shows that women can succeed in F1 and Wolff is a test driver on merit so it hopefully won't be too long.

Vettel will win - Ultimately no matter how unpredictable the season is, quality will shine through and Red Bull still have the best overall package, even if their car is not currently up to scratch, they have the resources to make it come together. From an ironic point of view I hope he wins it on the last day of the season and only because of the double points. Its a stupid rule and Vettel has said as much but i'd bet he'd still take the championship that way. As a wild card Possibility i think Button has a chance, If Red bull fail to materialize this year, and hamiltion/Rosberg fallout, Button has the experience patience, adaptability and determination to quietly come through whilst everyone else is complaining about the rules or their team.