The Mexico Question

The events in the Ukraine are devastating and surely the international community must come together and ensure a democratic route forward, that's in the best interests of Ukraine. I know nothing of the country its politics or its history. Though my great great granddad was from Kiev, so perhaps i should. The thought that Russia have invaded and are holding to ransom a independent country is shocking, and that it is within the European continent and essentially over whether Ukraine draws closer to the EU or to Russia make me think about international politics. As I said I know little about the situation in Ukraine but all my news sources seem to suggest unanimously that Russia are the ultra bad guys here.

Yet, I cant help thinking that that view may be a little hypocritical, is it suggested that if faced with a similar situation that any political powerhouse wouldn't do the same, Certainly Britain has throughout history, but surely those days are gone. But China? they would surely take a similar route, India probably, Japan? What about Brazil, surely the would defend their interests in a neighboring country, But what about the US would they just let a neighboring country fall into potential Civil war or would they send in an occupying force to protect their selfish interests.

This Blog runs the risk of being pro Russian or being supportive of the occupation, Its not meant to be its just a question of Geo-politics and a demonstration that things are never as simple as they seem.

What If...

Let me tell you a story about a fictional situation based in country that I know equally little about. Mexico has a long history of co-operating with the US and has several trade agreements, there are legal frameworks allowing for cross border initiatives. Millions of Mexicans live and work in the US. Major US companies operate out of Mexico, and relationships seem on the face of it to be going swimmingly. Sure there is poverty in Mexico, but so to in the US, sure there is a significant drug related underground and comparative inequality, but Mexico is not alone. Like the EU the south american countries have a union (UNSUR) and like the EU their are political and financial benefits to being part of that Union, currently their are 12 members, But Mexico currently has closer links to the US.

Now lets start making stuff up, Lets supposed that the inequality in Mexico increases and crime becomes a more favorable option for the countries poor. To help fight that crime the US offer assistance and help fight a more intense war against drugs. Lets assume that poverty is not curbed and the populace start directing the anger towards the government and seeing the links with the US and the relative wealth start to question why they are not helping more.

At the same time lets assume that the UNSUR start talking about expansion in to Central America, and an opposition leader made popular through sporting achievement, Maybe he won Gold in Sochi Olympics. Anyway, this opposition leader starts to campaign for closer links to UNSUR. The pro-US government has little choice but to draw battle lines along US\UNSUR boundaries and is draw even more pro-US. Eventually unrest occurs and the opposition start demanding immediate elections. But the Government stands firm, Mexican business which are understandably close to the government get worried and move money in whatever way they can out of the country, undoubtedly this will evolve some people very close to the Mexican leader, and some US Billionaires, linking to the US government. It would almost certainly be portrayed as corruption. Seeing this the situation escalates and their are riots on the street. Given its an internal affair along international relations, neither the US or the UNSUR get involved and its too far from Russia, China or the EU for them to get too close. Yet it continues to escalate and eventually the leader of Mexico stands down and the pro UNSUR leader forms a non-democratic interim government and the US are faced with the prospect of a country on their doorstep no longer being so friendly and in fact drawing closer to some rather un-cooperative countries, such as Venezuela and Cuba. It still has economic interest in the country, several large companies and governmental installations in the north of the country, It has a long border and their are family links running deep into both countries

At this point would the US stand idle with a revolution on its doorstep?, It would have to do something Everyone in California would know someone in Mexico suffering, and how would it protect its interests, to a government in chaos, Surely it too would be forced to mobilize troops to some degree, even to protect its Border? But whats the best way to protect the border? How would they respond to an Un-democratic Coup threatening their interest? Russia have undoubtedly gone too far, but what else would a superpower do? So faced with a similar situation, what should Russia do?

I have done a considerable dis-service to Mexico, and undoubtedly to Ukraine, Russia and the US and for that I apologize, but hopefully it demonstrates how complicated the situation in the Ukraine may be, and it important that even when faced with invasion, the important thing is to try and prevent escalation and to talk it out rather than to allow provocation. At least on this point the people of the Ukraine are being exceedingly patient.